Blog 6: Top 5 Predictions from my own research

Top 25 Predictions found based on my own research: 

Prediction 1: “There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share” - Steve Ballmer, USA Today, April 30, 2007. I think Steve said this because smart phones were a new concept and they were very expensive at the time. Also, everyone already had a cellphone and they were quite popular. Steve did not think that people would really spend so much more on a iPhone, when their normal phone was working just fine.

Prediction 2: “I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse”- Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995. He probably thought this because at the time it was impossible for servers to hold so much information. Who would have thought that the Internet would be able to do it. Metcalfe had promised to "eat his words" if his prediction was wrong. At a conference in 1997, true to his word, he used a food processor to liquefy a copy of the article containing the mistake... and then drank it.

Prediction 3: “Everyone's always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, 'Probably never”-David Pogue, The New York Times, 2006. This was funny because now the iPhone is so popular. He probably said this because Apple only focused on laptops. Also, Steve Jobs would never tolerate the micromanagement that the carriers like Verizon and AT&T exercised on every aspect of every phone they carried. He never thought Steve would give up veto power to anyone over its software design. However, David was wrong. The iPhone came out in 2007, only 1 year after he said that. Since then Apple has come out with a range of other products such as iPads, etc.

Prediction 4: “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”- Harry M. Warner, co-founder of Warner Brothers, 1926. When Warner’s younger brother, Sam, suggested Warner Bros, pursue the concept of using synchronizes speech in movies, Harry was skeptical. All films were silent at the time and they were doing extremely well. It would be a huge risk to try to do something different. Nonetheless, Sam prevailed and released the first “talkie” film called “The Jazz Singer” just 1 year after. This ended up revolutionizing the film industry.

Prediction 5: “The world’s climate is changing. Of that scientists are firmly convinced … Sooner or later, a major cooling of the climate is widely considered inevitable.”– New York Times article, May 21, 1975. Mainstream Media in the 1970s predicted that there would be a huge Ice Age. It is interesting because we are going through global warming now- quite the opposite. I wonder if today’s global warming forecasts will seem ridiculous 50 years in the future?