Blog 5: Top 5 Predictions

I chose these top 5 predictions because the ideas were completely preposterous, but man’s intelligence and innovation still conquered the farcicality of the ideas. In some sense, I would have agreed with the people who said such predictions because at the time there was no knowledge of how far science and modernization would go.

Prediction 1: “A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere” - The New York Times, January 13, 1920. The airplane was just built in 1903, so air transportation was relatively new. Moreover, people were quite suspicious about technology that could send you so many miles from earth. It did not seem safe and did not seem possible.

However, after Apollo 11 was on its way to the moon on July 17, 1969, The New York Times published a retraction.

Prediction 2: “There will never be a bigger plane built” – A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that hold ten people. The Boeing engineer probably never thought of how such a heavy piece of equipment could fly across the globe. Moreover, building planes were extremely expensive, so the engineer probably thought no one would be able to afford and build a bigger machine. 

Prediction 3: “There is no reason for an individual to have a computer in his home”- Ken Olson, president, chairman, and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) in talk given to a 1977 World Future Society in Boston. Ken probably said this because at the time computers were new, expensive, and only the top companies had access to them. Also, the computers had basic functions. There was no social media, online work, etc. Basically there was no need for people at the time to have a computer at home.

Prediction 4: “No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour when he can ride his horse there in one day for free” – King William I of Prussia, on trains, 1864.

At the time Trains were a brand new idea. People were not comfortable with spending so much money to travel. Usually they traveled to trade goods and services. Spending money on a train would just decrease there profits. Instead they could save money and just take a little bit more time to travel. Also the phrase “time is money” did not apply to them as much. Only with more and more people using transportation such as trains did the phrase emerge.

Prediction 5: "Television won’t last because people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night”- Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20^th Century Fox, 1946. Darryl probably said this because TV was a new idea. People usually played outside, went on walks, and did more active things. Watching TV would get tiring since they had to sit in one place for so long. I guess Darryl did not realize how lazy people are. If they can just relax and sit in one place, it is actually very enjoyable.